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And as Americans wind up owing more on their homes than they're worth, concerns are mounting that more may choose to simply walk away from their mortgages — a practice known as strategic default.
When the value of the mortgage is more than the value of the home, homeowners begin to show a willingness to strategically default on their mortgages, especially when the value has fallen by 15% or more, according to a 2009 study by researchers at Northwestern University, European University Institute and the University of Chicago. That could lead to more foreclosures and further depress home prices.
The negative equity problem also is threatening future inheritances. Many homeowners who counted on their home equity as a substantial part of the estate they'd pass on to their heirs are now worrying about the welfare of their spouses and children after they die.
Bob Riley had thought the equity in his home would provide for his wife, Dawn, and provide an inheritance for his three adult children. Now he fears it will just be a financial albatross for them.
His home is one of the 2.2 million in Florida with negative equity. He and Dawn, of Tallahassee, spent $220,000 five years ago and took out a fixed mortgage on their four-bedroom, one-story home that backs up to a lake and includes a 1-acre yard for their two dachshunds.
A nearly identical home across the street recently sold for about $180,000, and Bob guesses they're at least $20,000 underwater on their house. He used to work as a concrete salesman but is currently out of work. Dawn sells insurance.
It's frustrating, Bob says, because there's a home they'd like to buy with more square footage that's newer, but they'd have to write a check just to get out of their house. He says they've paid off all their bills and are now trying to decide whether to continue paying the mortgage.
"It'll take years for the equity to get back," he says.
Four or five other homeowners in his neighborhood, he says, have simply walked away and left their properties to the bank. And there are other hard realities to come to terms with.
Bob, 60, says he'll have no home value to pass on to Dawn or his three grown children.
He had thought he could take out a reverse mortgage on the home. That's when a homeowner who is older than 62 borrows money from his or her home. It isn't paid back until the owner dies, sells the home, or permanently moves out.
"I can't retire. I'm looking for work," Bob says. "I thought whatever we'd have, I'd pass away and leave the house to her, and she'd have a reverse mortgage to live off of. Now we don't know what we're going to do."
Negative home equity will last for years
| Sunken home prices have left millions of homeowners under water, owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. In a study for USA TODAY, First American CoreLogic estimates when typical underwater borrowers in 10 markets will see their negative equity turn positive. Equity is the difference between value of homes and the unpaid balance of mortgages: | |||
| 2009 equity | Year when negative equity turns positive | 2020 equity | |
| Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta Ga. | -$39,848 | 2016 | $33,614 |
| Boston-Quincy Mass. | -$130,452 | 2017 | $77,158 |
| Cape Coral-Fort Myers Fla. | -$82,641 | 2020 | $2,918 |
| Dallas-Plano-Irving Texas | -$35,145 | 2016 | $32,150 |
| Detroit-Livonia-Dearborn Mich. | -$35,345 | Not by 2020 | -$7,156 |
| Lancaster Pa. | -$117,587 | 2020 | $9,307 |
| Las Vegas-Paradise Nev. | -$94,352 | 2020 | $1,039 |
| Pittsburgh Pa. | -$65,817 | 2020 | $668 |
| Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario Calif. | -$97,244 | 2016 | $56,515 |
| Washington, D.C.-Arlington-Alexandria Va. | -$75,118 | 2015 | $80,425 |
| How this study was done: First American CoreLogic
assumed a 3% nominal annual increase in national prices and considered historical
trends for previous state-level house price busts to gauge how quickly prices
recovered. To forecast future unpaid principal balances, an amortization
schedule for a typical 5-year-old loan with a fixed-rate mortgage of 6%
was used. That is the typical loan in First American CoreLogic's database
of more than 40 million active loans nationwide. Source: First American CoreLogic |
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